--> Disaster Curve: A model we should all know | Art of Adversity

Disaster Curve: A normalizing framework we should all know

Hurricane Milton is tearing through central Florida tonight. 

Florida meteorologist Noah Bergen said, “this hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere over this ocean water can produce.”

I don’t mean to be alarmist. 

I do want to acknowledge that as the storm rages on while so many of us will be sleeping soundly in other parts of the world, it serves as a stark reminder that with natural disasters increasing in both frequency and intensity, and people worldwide are struggling to recover from a string of catastrophes, it’s never too soon to train for what may hit our own backyards. 

And maybe this will make its way to the American South for anyone who may find it helpful.

In these moments, when chaos feels relentless, the psychological impact is as profound as the physical damage.

According to the WHO, natural disasters affect approx. 160 million people each year. And up to 50% of those affected experience mental health conditions like PTSD, depression, or chronic anxiety. 

For example, after Hurricane Katrina suicide and suicidal ideation rates doubled. 
The aftermath of Hurricane Milton will likely reveal similar trends if we don’t make efforts to come to terms with our relationship to suffering and how it fits into our experience.

By understanding what emotionally happens after the storm clears, we can understand the trajectory that follows.

Park’s Model, also known as the Disaster Response Curve, offers a visual framework to help us understand the emotional trajectory that follows a traumatic event. This model shows how trauma, whether acute or chronic, can disrupt our lives in profound ways, but also leads to new beginnings if we can integrate the experience.

It maps out a sequence of phases that many people experience, highlighting the nature of recovery, healing and the potential for post-traumatic growth.


1. Pre-Trauma Phase: Life before the event represents a baseline of normalcy. Here, individuals are engaged in their usual routines, with a general sense of stability.

2. Event or Impact Phase: When the traumatic event occurs, it causes a sharp decline in quality of life. Emotions run high, often characterized by shock, disbelief, and/or high stress. 

3. Heroic Phase: There is often a temporary surge of resilience as individuals rise to the occasion, fueled by adrenaline and an urgent need to take action. While this phase can bring a temporary boost in morale, it is typically short-lived, as the reality of the situation sets in.

4. Disillusionment Phase: As the initial surge fades, the prolonged nature of recovery becomes evident. This phase is marked by fatigue, frustration, and the daunting awareness of the losses incurred. Many describe this as a “Dark Night,” where old coping mechanisms are insufficient for the new challenges.

5. Reconstruction, Recovery, New Beginnings: With time, agency, and support, individuals begin to rebuild, not just returning to baseline but often growing beyond their previous state. This phase is characterized by a new sense of purpose, deeper relationships, and an appreciation for life. Through post-traumatic growth, individuals can find themselves emerging stronger, more resilient, and with a renewed perspective on what truly matters.

Understanding this curve can help us recognize that the purpose of the trauma may not be about “bouncing back” to who we were but about integrating the experience into our lives, allowing us to grow and evolve.

I’m going to discuss more about post traumatic growth and the duality that it presents next week.

I think that the focus this week should be on the Heroic phase and Disillusionment phase. 
When this surge of togetherness and adrenaline wears off, it can feel like you’re losing the battle. This can leading to an incredibly challenging emotional drop.

That’s totally understandable.

This shift into the Disillusionment phase seems like a setback, a regression, even though it’s a natural part of the process. 

Understanding that the decline in energy and morale is not a sign of failure, but a normal transition, can be crucial for maintaining hope and fostering healthier coping strategies.

The important thing to remember with Park’s Model is that by recognizing these phases, individuals and communities can better anticipate and address feelings of hopelessness and distress. 

We know the dark night is coming. Hurricane or not, it’s built into our human experience.
And perhaps by knowing this, we normalize the experience, we reduce the stigma, and make it easier for people to accept our feelings as temporary without resorting to harmful behaviors that prolong the process of growth and wisdom that can come from adversity. 

Best,
Jeff Depatie
Founder, Art of Adversity
Chief Course Architect, The Special Forces Experience

PS These are insights from our nearly finished documentary, Dark Night of Our Soul, where we explore the journey of growth after trauma. Although the film isn’t ready to view, we feel it’s timely to discuss this topic. If you want to get on the watch list, visit www.posttraumaticgrowth.film 
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